AMSTERDAM—With the days growing shorter here in the rainy, cloudy Netherlands, and the 2023 calendar running out of pages, the political outlook for next year remains decidedly overcast. Negotiations to form a new government following the country’s shock elections in November are going into quiet mode, as Geert Wilders, the far-right provocateur who went from fringe figure to would-be prime minister, tries to cobble together a governing coalition.
After another session of talks with potential partners last week, Wilders announced there would now be “radio silence” on the process. Official progress reports on the Cabinet formation are not expected before February.
As the caretaker government of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte keeps its hands on the rudder awaiting the outcome of coalition talks, a few scenarios look possible. At the moment, the most likely is a weak and unstable government led by Wilders.
The Nov. 22 election gave a decisive win to the right, with Wilders’ Party for Freedom, or PVV, winning 37 seats in the Twede Kamer, the lower house of parliament, far ahead of the second-place finisher, a center-left alliance of the Labor Party, or PvdA, and the Green Left.
To form a government, Wilders needs to bring together a majority of at least 76 of the parliament’s 150 seats. In theory, that looked rather easy following the November ballot, which left the four parties of the right with 88 seats. If Wilders can persuade them to back him, he would preside over a strong majority. But there’s nothing simple or easy about the current Dutch political environment.
Wilders has spent decades demonizing immigrants and Muslims, roiling the political and social waters in a country accustomed to compromise and tolerance. Perhaps he never expected to find himself in the position of seeking consensus to forge a majority—in short, of becoming prime minister.
The VVD, Rutte’s center-right party, finished third in November and quickly created a conundrum for Wilders. Dilan Yesilgoz, the outgoing justice minister who now leads the party after Rutte’s surprise resignation and retirement from politics in July, dropped something of a political bombshell early in government-formation negotiations: The VVD would not join the Cabinet, she declared, but was willing to support the new government in parliament.
Some saw it as a negotiating ploy, but Yesilgoz argues that after so many years in power, and after losing so many seats in the last election, the VVD needed to remain outside of government for a period of time.
If she stays true to her word, that means that instead of 88 seats, the best Wilders will be able to do is a coalition comprising just 64 of the 150 seats in the lower house. He will need the VVD’s additional 24 seats to pass any legislation, giving Yesilgoz and her party considerable power, but leaving the government weak and vulnerable.
Today, the stiffest obstacle for Wilders is that after decades of making headlines by lambasting immigrants, Muslims and Dutch tolerance, most people don’t trust his newfound moderation.
The notion that Wilders might ultimately agree to allow someone else to become prime minister is unlikely, but it is not out of the question.
He is still negotiating with the Farmers’ Party, or BBB, and the New Social Contract, a party created just before the elections by Pieter Omtzigt, the former Christian Democrat renowned as an anti-corruption, rule-of-law stalwart. In the weeks ahead of the November election, Omtzigt had ruled out the prospect of joining a government coalition that even included Wilders, whose incendiary proposals range from shutting down mosques to banning the Quran.
But Wilders has suddenly switched hymnals, sounding an unfamiliar conciliatory note now that he needs the support of Omtzigt and others.
Today, the stiffest obstacle for Wilders is that most people don’t trust his newfound moderation. After decades of making headlines by lambasting immigrants, Muslims and Dutch tolerance, he now claims that his changed political circumstances have reshaped his priorities.
A few days ago, in parliament, he was asked if he would retract his previous controversial statements, including those disparaging the parliament itself. Wilders declined to take them back, saying this is a time to look ahead to the future. But he insisted that his new position puts him in a different role, with different responsibilities from those he had as an opposition figure.
With potential partners such as Omtzigt refusing to join a government that seeks to enact extremist and unconstitutional legislation, Wilders is trying to sound like a man suddenly matured by circumstances. In that same parliamentary session, he promised that the PVV will adhere faithfully to the rules, focusing “100 percent on the constitution and the rule of law,” and that if a proposal is in conflict with the Netherlands’ basic law, he will withdraw it.
Wilders is taking particular pains to reassure Muslims, the target of his populist invective for decades, that he will not deport anyone, but not all are buying it, especially in the opposition. Frans Timmermans, who headed the Labor/Green Left ticket, blasted Wilders on the floor of the lower house. “If you get the chance, you will undermine the democratic rule of law,” he charged.
Prior to the election, Wilders had vowed to hold a “Nexit” referendum, the Dutch version of Brexit. He had also promised to shut down Muslim schools, ban the Muslim holy book, impose a tax on Muslim headscarves—naming the measure with a condescending Dutch term, to boot—and crack down on immigrants, especially from Muslim countries.
Once the election results suddenly transformed him from flamethrowing outsider to aspiring prime minister, Wilders told an interviewer that he would set aside the policies that have defined his political persona for a quarter of a century, saying he would put them in “cold storage.”
To Timmermans, the metaphor was telling. “Someone who has put something on ice is planning to keep it fresh and use it later,” he noted.
One month after the election, negotiations to form a new government appear to be proceeding in relatively normal fashion. There is no sign that they have broken down. Eventually, as the days start to grow longer in the New Year, the Netherlands is likely to emerge with a brand-new right-wing government. And yet, it is likely to be one that is fragile, distrusted by the Dutch people and plagued by suspicions even among its own key members.
Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist and a regular contributor to CNN and The Washington Post. Her WPR column appears every Thursday. You can follow her on Twitter at @fridaghitis.